The humanitarian situation in the occupied territories and in areas close to the frontline remains critical. Changes on the battlefield do not automatically mean improved living conditions for the civilian population. On the contrary, according to UN data, humanitarian needs and civilian casualties remain extremely high in 2026.
According to the UN, around 10.8 million people across Ukraine will require humanitarian assistance in 2026. International humanitarian organizations plan to provide life-saving support to 4.1 million of the most vulnerable people. This requires $2.3 billion. The UN identifies the highest needs in frontline areas and northern border communities, where hostilities are destroying civilian infrastructure and disrupting access to essential services.
The situation in the occupied territories remains particularly difficult. According to Ukrainian estimates, around 6 million civilians may remain there. At the same time, it is extremely difficult to independently verify the exact number of people actually living in the occupied territories in 2026. The UN emphasizes the lack of adequate humanitarian access to these areas, making it significantly harder to assess the true scale of needs.
Water and Food
In the occupied territories, access to water and food depends not only on the availability of supplies, but also on the condition of infrastructure and the ability to deliver what is needed. Damage to water pipelines, power grids, pumping stations and roads makes regular supplies more difficult.
For people who remain in settlements near the frontline, the problem has another dimension. Even when necessary supplies are available, delivering them may be dangerous or temporarily impossible because of shelling and attacks on transport infrastructure.
The consequences of damage to the energy system extend far beyond electricity supply. Last winter, attacks on energy infrastructure caused simultaneous disruptions to electricity, heating and water. For frontline communities, this means the risk of pumps, heating systems, shops and medical facilities stopping work.
Older people, people with disabilities and those who are unable to leave on their own are particularly vulnerable. For them, disruptions to water or food supplies can quickly turn into a crisis that they cannot resolve on their own.
Medical Assistance
The healthcare system in areas close to the frontline operates under constant risk. Damage to hospitals, staff shortages, power outages and difficulties delivering medicines limit civilians’ access to treatment.
The International Rescue Committee provides mobile medical assistance to communities near the frontline. Such programmes are particularly important where stationary medical infrastructure has been damaged or is operating with restrictions.
The problem concerns not only physical health. Prolonged war, displacement, the loss of loved ones, violence and constant exposure to threats have long-term psychological consequences. International organizations separately emphasize the needs of children, women and people who have experienced violence.
The security situation deteriorated in 2026. According to the UN Human Rights Monitoring Mission, at least 448 civilians were killed and another 2,675 were injured in July. This was the highest monthly number of civilian deaths since May 2022. In August, at least another 372 civilians were killed and 2,349 were injured. August was the second-highest month for civilian casualties in 2026 after July.
During the first eight months of 2026, the UN recorded 2,222 civilian deaths and 13,058 injuries. This is 55% higher than during the same period in 2025, when 1,694 deaths and 8,165 injuries were recorded. At the same time, the number of civilian casualties during January–August 2026 had already exceeded the figure for the whole of 2025.
Occupation and Limited Access
Around 6 million civilians who, according to Ukrainian estimates, remain in the temporarily occupied territories are in an especially difficult situation. This figure should be understood as an estimate, not as an independently verified population census.
The UN emphasizes that it does not have full access to the occupied territories. As a result, independent monitoring of human rights violations and humanitarian needs there is significantly more difficult.
The latest UN data also demonstrate the scale of the problem with access to information. In August, the Mission was able to verify 4 civilian deaths and 35 injuries in territory of Ukraine occupied by Russia. At the same time, due to the lack of independent sources, the UN was unable to verify the vast majority of reports concerning other casualties. This means that the confirmed statistics cannot be regarded as a complete measure of the actual scale of civilian casualties in the occupied territories.
The absence of independent access does not mean the absence of needs. On the contrary, the more difficult it is to verify the situation, the greater the risk that people will be left without timely medical, food and social support.
Oleshky as an Example of an Occupied Territory
The situation in Oleshky in the Kherson region demonstrates how difficult the situation of civilians can become under occupation and with limited humanitarian access.
According to reports from the Ukrainian side, the city’s population is facing shortages of food, medicines and basic necessities. At the same time, the lack of safe and regular access makes it more difficult to independently assess people’s needs and deliver the necessary resources.
From a human rights perspective, the key issue is precisely this: civilians should not lose access to basic services because a territory is under occupation or located in an active combat zone.
Oleshky are an example of a broader problem. When independent access is restricted, it becomes more difficult to verify information about the condition of the population, the scale of shortages of food and medicines, access to water and the possibility of evacuation.
The Grey Zone: No Exact Figures, but Growing Risk
There is no separate reliable official statistics for the number of people who permanently live in the so-called “grey zone.” The population of such areas constantly changes due to evacuation, displacement and intensified hostilities.
At the same time, the scale of the population living in frontline regions can be estimated. The list of frontline territories includes 10 regions where more than 6 million people live. This figure does not mean that all these people are located directly near the frontline. It shows the scale of the population in regions where risks to civilians are significantly higher.
The UN identifies frontline areas as among the territories with the highest humanitarian needs. The main reasons are intense shelling, damage to civilian infrastructure and disruptions to essential services.
In such communities, even a short-term escalation can disrupt evacuation, food deliveries, the operation of a medical facility or access to pharmacies.
Winter as a Separate Risk
The approaching winter may intensify existing problems. This is why, in July 2026, the UN and humanitarian organizations launched the 2026–2027 Autumn-Winter Response Plan.
The plan aims to assist 2.1 million people and requires $358.4 million. Its priorities are heating, repairs to damaged homes, healthcare, protection, food and cash assistance. Particular attention is paid to people living closest to the frontline, evacuees, newly displaced people and those whose homes and infrastructure have been affected by attacks.
The plan covers the period from October 2026 to March 2027. Its launch before the cold weather begins shows that humanitarian organizations expect significant risks for the civilian population to persist.
Last winter, attacks on energy infrastructure left families without electricity, heating and water for days, and in some places for weeks. For people near the frontline, a repeat of such a scenario could have particularly severe consequences.
For the occupied territories, the risk is even more complex because of the lack of stable independent access. If water, heating or electricity systems are damaged, the ability to assess the situation externally and respond quickly will be limited.
Risk to Humanitarian Infrastructure
The problem is not only how to deliver resources to civilians. The infrastructure through which this support is delivered is itself under threat.
In 2026, attacks on humanitarian warehouses in Ukraine destroyed stocks of medicines, hygiene supplies, school materials and other essential items. After such attacks, organizations have to purchase resources again, change delivery routes and search for safer storage locations.
The UN has reported that it is considering moving some supplies to protected or underground facilities. This means that humanitarian organizations have to spend increasing amounts of resources on the security of their own logistics in order to maintain their ability to assist civilians.
Funding Cuts Increase Vulnerability
Another factor is the reduction in international funding. The International Rescue Committee reported that its projected budget for operations in Ukraine in 2027 had been reduced from $40 million to $20 million.
This does not mean that international support for Ukraine has ended. In 2026, international organizations and individual states continue to fund humanitarian programmes. The issue is different: needs remain long-term, while available funding can change more quickly.
Across the UN system, $2.3 billion is needed in 2026 to assist 4.1 million of the most vulnerable people. The separate winter plan requires another $358.4 million to support 2.1 million people.
For people, reduced resources may mean fewer medical visits, psychological support programmes, evacuation opportunities and assistance in remote areas.
What May Change in Autumn and Winter
As of September 2026, there are no grounds to say that humanitarian risks are declining. On the contrary, official UN statistics show an increase in civilian casualties. During the first eight months of the year, the number of people killed and injured was 55% higher than during the same period in 2025.
At the same time, there is no complete forecast for the winter. The situation will depend on the intensity of attacks, the condition of energy infrastructure, temperatures, evacuation possibilities and the access of humanitarian organizations to the most dangerous areas.
However, preparations are already underway. The UN autumn-winter plan is designed to support 2.1 million people, with heat, housing, healthcare, protection, food and financial assistance among its main areas.
Therefore, the main risk is not only possible new attacks. The simultaneous impact of several factors could become dangerous: damage to energy infrastructure, water disruptions, destroyed housing, limited access to medical workers and reduced capacity of humanitarian organizations.
The Humanitarian Crisis Does Not End When the Frontline Changes
A destroyed home is not rebuilt after control over a territory changes. A damaged hospital does not automatically resume operating. A person who has lost access to water, heating or medicines needs assistance regardless of where the frontline runs.
For civilians in the occupied territories, access to basic resources, medical care, protection from violence and the ability to safely leave a dangerous area remain particularly important.
For people in frontline communities, the main problem is the combination of constant danger and the gradual depletion of local resources. If energy infrastructure, water supplies, roads and medical infrastructure are damaged simultaneously, even several days of severe frost can have serious consequences.
As of September 2026, it is impossible to predict the exact scale of the coming winter crisis. But the available data already show that risks to civilians remain high and are worsening in some areas. That is why preparation for the cold season, safe access to affected communities, protection of critical infrastructure and the possibility of evacuation must be ensured before a new wave of escalation begins.
For people in Oleshky, frontline communities and other hard-to-reach areas, the question remains concrete: will there be water, food, heat, medicines and an opportunity to receive assistance when it is needed?